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Thursday, 9 July 2015

The Best Premier League Forwards (2010 - 2015): Top 20 Lists

Top 20 Lists

It's summer. It's hotter than hell in my part of the world. It hasn't rained for 2 months and it feels like I might never see rain again. 

Test

So, seeing as it's too hot and I'm lazy, I wanted to post something silly and fun. The meatier subjects of injury analytics, score effects and whatever the hell else is on my list of 'things to du' can wait.

It's time now to look at some of the best Premier League forwards of the last 5 years.

I've got 6 categories and a song. All stat categories will be sorted by p90 but I've also included season, age, raw counts, and minutes played to give you an idea of the size of the sample. 

40% minutes played cut-off. All penalties are removed, as are penalty shots. (man, it feels like so long since I started stripping penalty goals out of goal totals. Nobody knew what the fuck to do with it!)


Top 20's. Tables are sortable.

Goals p90

Oh, Sergio! You might never get your dues from journalists or your peers, but good lord you can score.

Agüero features 3 times on this list. As does RvP (age 27,28,29) and the now fading Edin Dzeko. Suarez features twice. Lukaku posted a 15 goal/0.67 p90 season at age 20. Quite remarkable. Ditto Kane (finishing %'s are a touch high)

I miss Gareth Bale.

Season Age Player / Season Goals p90 Goals Mins
S 13/14 25 Sergio Agüero 0.99 17 1539
S 13/14 27 Luis Suárez 0.94 31 2965
S 10/11 30 Dimitar Berbatov 0.86 20 2096
S 11/12 26 Edin Dzeko 0.84 14 1497
S 13/14 24 Daniel Sturridge 0.83 21 2277
S 14/15 26 Diego Costa 0.82 19 2085
S 10/11 27 Robin van Persie 0.81 16 1768
S 10/11 23 Javier Hernández 0.79 13 1482
S 11/12 28 Robin van Persie 0.75 28 3344
S 14/15 26 Sergio Agüero 0.74 21 2540
S 13/14 28 Edin Dzeko 0.72 16 1993
S 12/13 26 Luis Suárez 0.7 23 2955
S 11/12 23 Sergio Agüero 0.69 20 2602
S 12/13 27 Edin Dzeko 0.69 14 1816
S 11/12 26 Wayne Rooney 0.67 21 2839
S 12/13 20 Romelu Lukaku 0.67 15 2006
S 14/15 28 Olivier Giroud 0.67 14 1867
S 12/13 29 Robin van Persie 0.66 23 3123
S 14/15 21 Harry Kane 0.66 19 2582
S 12/13 23 Gareth Bale 0.65 21 2925


Assists p90

Double figures in assists, for forwards, is a pretty rare feat. 

Rooney has 3 of the top 10 seasons. Aguero is on this list twice, as is Hazard. No other player repeats.

I was surprised the corpse of Fernando Torres appeared on the top 20 assists p90 list. I can only assume those assists were mis-hit shots. 

Glad to see Jamie Vardy on here. His road to the top is as great a story as it is rare.


Season Age Player / Season Assits p90 Assists Mins
S 12/13 27 Wayne Rooney 0.45 10 2019
S 10/11 33 Didier Drogba 0.42 13 2793
S 12/13 28 Lukas Podolski 0.41 9 2000
S 12/13 22 Eden Hazard 0.38 11 2640
S 13/14 28 Wayne Rooney 0.37 10 2448
S 13/14 27 Luis Suárez 0.36 12 2965
S 10/11 27 Robin van Persie 0.36 7 1768
S 10/11 25 Wayne Rooney 0.36 11 2723
S 10/11 30 Peter Crouch 0.36 6 1481
S 13/14 25 Sergio Agüero 0.35 6 1539
S 11/12 28 Emmanuel Adebayor 0.35 11 2841
S 13/14 32 Rickie Lambert 0.32 10 2820
S 11/12 25 Gervinho 0.32 6 1688
S 14/15 28 Jamie Vardy 0.32 8 2247
S 12/13 29 Carlos Tevez 0.3 8 2410
S 13/14 30 Fernando Torres 0.29 5 1572
S 14/15 28 Shane Long 0.29 5 1542
S 14/15 24 Eden Hazard 0.29 11 3379
S 13/14 24 Daniel Sturridge 0.28 7 2277
S 14/15 26 Sergio Agüero 0.28 8 2540

Points p90

Points = goals+assists.

Aguero's injury shortened 13/14 season is the best forward season of the last 5 years (and possibly longer).

Suarez joins Aguero in being way clear of the pack. You want a quick example of how amazingly good Suarez was in 13/14? He dragged the one-legged Daniel Sturridge into his spectacular orbit and enabled the England forward to post a season good enough to be in #5 spot.

Van Persie appears 3 times on this list. Aguero x2. Rooney x2. Suarez x2. Dzeko x2.

Giroud and Kane creep into the bottom of the list. 

A quick mention for #12, the one and only Lukas Podolski. The question any man, balanced and sound of mind, may ask is: How the fuck is Podolski on the list? 

Podolski had a sh% of 20% and a shot assist% of 28% and an on-field shooting% (all goals and assists/ all shots and shot assists) of 23%. All these percentages may as well be orbiting in outer space such is how high and elevated they are. No player can repeat those percentages. Arsenal should of sold him the minute that 12/13 season finished.

I look at this list and I can't help think of all the talent that has either left or is soon to be aged beyond recognition. 10 of the players who posted top 20 points p90 seasons have already left/about to leave the league. Sturridge is broken, Rooney's best years are gone. Aguero, Lukaku and Kane are the last men standing. 


Season Age Player / Season Points p90 Points Mins
S 13/14 25 Sergio Agüero 1.35 23 1539
S 13/14 27 Luis Suárez 1.31 43 2965
S 10/11 27 Robin van Persie 1.17 23 1768
S 13/14 24 Daniel Sturridge 1.11 28 2277
S 14/15 26 Sergio Agüero 1.03 29 2540
S 10/11 30 Dimitar Berbatov 1.03 24 2096
S 11/12 26 Edin Dzeko 1.02 17 1497
S 11/12 28 Robin van Persie 1 37 3344
S 11/12 23 Sergio Agüero 0.97 28 2602
S 14/15 26 Diego Costa 0.95 22 2085
S 12/13 27 Wayne Rooney 0.94 21 2019
S 12/13 28 Lukas Podolski 0.9 20 2000
S 12/13 29 Robin van Persie 0.89 31 3123
S 13/14 28 Wayne Rooney 0.88 24 2448
S 12/13 20 Romelu Lukaku 0.85 19 2006
S 12/13 26 Luis Suárez 0.85 28 2955
S 10/11 23 Javier Hernández 0.85 14 1482
S 12/13 27 Edin Dzeko 0.84 17 1816
S 14/15 28 Olivier Giroud 0.82 17 1867
S 14/15 21 Harry Kane 0.8 23 2582

Shots p90

Moving away from goals now and focusing on all things shots.

Suarez was a shot monster in 13/14 when everybody correctly said he was amazing. Suarez was also a shot monster in his previous seasons with Liverpool. Location could be sketchy, but the chaos and high event game was evident in 12/13 - which is the best shot volume season on record (10 - 15). I think I came up with the saying 'a hub player' specifically for Suarez. 

Aguero, Suarez, Dzeko and Van Persie take up 11 spots on this list. Wilfried Bony had a nice season.

Oddballs such as Pavlyuchenko, Obinna, and Saha somehow make this list.

I miss Gareth Bale.

Season Age Player / Season Shots p90 Shots Mins
S 12/13 26 Luis Suárez 5.7 187 2955
S 11/12 26 Edin Dzeko 5.53 92 1497
S 13/14 27 Luis Suárez 5.49 181 2965
S 12/13 28 Demba Ba 5.15 134 2342
S 12/13 23 Gareth Bale 5.08 165 2925
S 14/15 26 Sergio Agüero 5.03 142 2540
S 13/14 25 Sergio Agüero 4.97 85 1539
S 14/15 26 Wilfried Bony 4.95 88 1599
S 10/11 27 Robin van Persie 4.79 94 1768
S 10/11 33 Didier Drogba 4.74 147 2793
S 11/12 26 Wayne Rooney 4.72 149 2839
S 13/14 28 Edin Dzeko 4.65 103 1993
S 12/13 27 Edin Dzeko 4.61 93 1816
S 11/12 28 Robin van Persie 4.6 171 3344
S 11/12 25 Luis Suárez 4.47 127 2557
S 10/11 24 Victor Obinna 4.4 77 1574
S 11/12 23 Sergio Agüero 4.39 127 2602
S 10/11 32 Louis Saha 4.33 66 1372
S 12/13 20 Romelu Lukaku 4.31 96 2006
S 10/11 29 Roman Pavlyuchenko 4.23 75 1595


Shot Assists p90

Suarez is here again x 3. Hazard x3. Van Persie x2. We also have the oddballs again: Lambert, Kalou, Obinna, Odemwingie, Zamora.

Season Age Player / Season Shot Assists p90 Shot Assists Mins
S 12/13 26 Luis Suárez 2.77 91 2955
S 14/15 24 Eden Hazard 2.69 101 3379
S 13/14 27 Luis Suárez 2.67 88 2965
S 13/14 23 Eden Hazard 2.58 83 2898
S 10/11 24 Victor Obinna 2.57 45 1574
S 10/11 25 Salomon Kalou 2.53 44 1563
S 14/15 34 Bobby Zamora 2.52 50 1783
S 14/15 26 Alexis Sánchez 2.5 82 2953
S 11/12 28 Robin van Persie 2.48 92 3344
S 10/11 34 Kevin Davies 2.44 92 3387
S 11/12 22 Gareth Bale 2.35 84 3217
S 12/13 31 Rickie Lambert 2.33 81 3133
S 10/11 33 Didier Drogba 2.32 72 2793
S 12/13 23 Gareth Bale 2.31 75 2925
S 12/13 29 Carlos Tevez 2.28 61 2410
S 10/11 29 Peter Odemwingie 2.28 68 2685
S 10/11 27 Robin van Persie 2.24 44 1768
S 10/11 30 Dimitar Berbatov 2.23 52 2096
S 11/12 25 Luis Suárez 2.22 63 2557
S 12/13 22 Eden Hazard 2.22 65 2640


Shot Contribution p90

Suarez takes the top 2 spots and  it's likely not a stretch to say he was the best player we have seen in the last 5 years of the Premier League. It's not just the fact that Suarez takes the top 2 spots, it's the gap between his best seasons and the rest of the pack. Volume matters. As does his durability.

Suarez x3. Aguero x3. 

Van Persie x2. Bale x2 (aged 22 & 23). Dzeko x2 (sub effects).



Season Age Player / Season Shot Cont p90 Shots + Shot Assists Mins
S 12/13 26 Luis Suárez 8.47 278 2955
S 13/14 27 Luis Suárez 8.17 269 2965
S 11/12 26 Edin Dzeko 7.52 125 1497
S 12/13 23 Gareth Bale 7.38 240 2925
S 13/14 25 Sergio Agüero 7.13 122 1539
S 11/12 28 Robin van Persie 7.08 263 3344
S 10/11 33 Didier Drogba 7.06 219 2793
S 10/11 27 Robin van Persie 7.02 138 1768
S 10/11 24 Victor Obinna 6.98 122 1574
S 11/12 25 Luis Suárez 6.69 190 2557
S 10/11 30 Dimitar Berbatov 6.44 150 2096
S 14/15 26 Wilfried Bony 6.42 114 1599
S 11/12 23 Sergio Agüero 6.36 184 2602
S 11/12 26 Wayne Rooney 6.34 200 2839
S 10/11 25 Salomon Kalou 6.28 109 1563
S 12/13 27 Edin Dzeko 6.24 126 1816
S 14/15 26 Sergio Agüero 6.2 175 2540
S 14/15 26 Alexis Sánchez 6.16 202 2953
S 11/12 22 Gareth Bale 6.15 220 3217
S 12/13 29 Carlos Tevez 6.12 164 2410

There's a few guys that consistently show up on all these lists. And I'll rank them (imo) in order of brilliance and value to their teams.

#1 Luis Suarez
#2 Sergio Aguero
#3 Gareth Bale
#4 Robin van Persie

These guys are the supermen of the Premier League 2010 - 2015. These players had tremendous impacts on their respective teams. #1 and #3 went to the best 2 clubs in the world. #2 is untouchable and #4 is a huge outlier - but what a talent - in that he was able to post incredible seasons during his 27/28/29 yo seasons - the autumn of his prime.

Again, these guys were the supermen of the league and nobody else got close to equaling their blend of excellence and consistency. Rare talents.

Music

Superman. Rare talent.

Play LOUD.

(for music nerds, I adore the My Bloody Valentine-type dense, muscular  tone to Billy's guitar during Siamese Era (Alan Mulder influence))